Risk Allocation and Financial Modeling in PPP Infrastructure Projects Training Course

Module 1: Foundations of Public-Private Partnerships and Project Finance

ü  Introduction to PPP procurement models: BOT, BOOT, DBFO, and Concessions

ü  Distinguishing corporate finance from non-recourse and limited-recourse project finance

ü  Key stakeholders in PPPs: Offtakers, Sponsors, Lenders, EPC Contractors, and O&M Operators

ü  The PPP project lifecycle: From feasibility studies to financial closure and operations

ü  Practical Session: Mapping stakeholder relationships and cash flow waterfalls for a transportation PPP project

Module 2: Risk Identification, Structuring, and Allocation Matrices

ü  Principles of risk allocation: Allocating risk to the party best able to manage it

ü  Categorizing PPP risks: Construction, completion, demand, tariff, political, and force majeure

ü  Credit enhancement and risk mitigation tools: Guarantees, letters of credit, and political risk insurance

ü  Structuring the risk allocation matrix for concession agreements

ü  Practical Session: Drafting a comprehensive risk allocation matrix for a municipal water treatment facility

Module 3: Financial Modeling Fundamentals for PPP Projects

ü  Standard financial modeling best practices, formatting, and structural guidelines

ü  Setting up model inputs, macro assumptions, timing flags, and timeline masks

ü  Modeling construction capital expenditure (CapEx), interest during construction (IDC), and drawdowns

ü  Integrating core financial statements: Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow Statement

ü  Practical Session: Building the timing, CapEx drawdown, and financing module of a PPP financial model in Excel

Module 4: Designing Revenue Models, Tariffs, and Payment Mechanisms

ü  Availability payment structures versus user-pay tariff models

ü  Modeling volume risk, shadow tolls, demand elasticity, and take-or-pay off-take agreements

ü  Indexation, inflation adjustments, and foreign exchange pass-through mechanisms

ü  Operational expenditure (OpEx) forecasting and major maintenance reserve accounts

ü  Practical Session: Constructing a 20-year revenue and operating cost engine for an availability-based toll road

Module 5: Capital Structure, Debt Sizing, and Coverage Ratio Analysis

ü  Optimizing equity vs. debt capital structures in project finance

ü  Debt sizing techniques based on Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) targets

ü  Calculating Loan Life Coverage Ratio (LLCR) and Project Life Coverage Ratio (PLCR)

ü  Designing Debt Service Reserve Accounts (DSRA) and cash sweep mechanisms

ü  Practical Session: Programming dynamic debt sizing macros and coverage ratio calculations in an Excel model

Module 6: Value for Money (VfM) and Public Sector Comparator (PSC) Analysis

ü  Concepts of Value for Money (VfM) in public infrastructure procurement

ü  Constructing the Public Sector Comparator (PSC) baseline model

ü  Quantifying raw risk, transferable risk, and retained risk in monetary terms

ü  Comparing traditional public procurement costs against PPP proposals

ü  Practical Session: Building a Public Sector Comparator model to perform a quantitative VfM assessment

Module 7: Tax, Accounting, Depreciation, and Inflation Modeling

ü  Modeling straight-line and tax depreciation schedules for infrastructure assets

ü  Corporate tax calculations, tax losses carried forward, and tax incentives

ü  Accounting for working capital changes, trade receivables, and payables

ü  Modeling real versus nominal cash flows and multi-currency exchange dynamics

ü  Practical Session: Incorporating tax schedules, working capital adjustments, and inflation factors into an active model

Module 8: Sensitivity, Scenario, and Risk Simulation Modeling

ü  Identifying critical risk variables: Cost overruns, interest rate spikes, and revenue shortfalls

ü  Designing dynamic scenario managers in Excel for Base, Up-Side, and Down-Side cases

ü  Performing one-way and two-way sensitivity analyses on Equity IRR and DSCR

ü  Introduction to Monte Carlo simulations for probabilistic risk assessment

ü  Practical Session: Running sensitivity tables and scenario simulations to evaluate debt repayment capacity under stress

Module 9: Contractual Frameworks, Concession Agreements, and Termination Refinancing

ü  Key clauses in concession agreements, off-take contracts, and direct lender agreements

ü  Financial modeling of refinancing opportunities and gain-sharing arrangements

ü  Calculating compensation on termination: Default by concessionaire vs. default by authority

ü  Force majeure events and financial restitution mechanisms

ü  Practical Session: Modeling a concession refinancing scenario and calculating revised equity returns and lender payouts

Module 10: Model Auditing, Optimization, and Executive Dashboard Presentation

ü  Model auditing techniques: Detecting circular references, formula errors, and logic flaws

ü  Optimizing model speed, size, and user interface for decision-makers

ü  Designing executive summary dashboards, charts, and key performance indicators

ü  Presenting financial model outputs to investment committees and credit approval boards

ü  Practical Session: Conducting a peer audit on a completed PPP model and creating an executive dashboard for deal presentation

About Our Trainers

Our lead facilitators are seasoned project finance experts, investment bankers, and infrastructure advisors with over 15 years of international experience in structuring and modeling multi-million-dollar PPP deals. They have advised governments, multilateral development banks, and private developers across energy, transport, water, and social infrastructure sectors. Combining deep technical mastery in Excel financial modeling with practical transaction execution experience, our trainers ensure participants gain actionable tools and insights that can be immediately applied to complex infrastructure transactions.

Quality Statement

Phoenix Center for Policy, Research and Training is committed to delivering excellence in executive education and capacity building. Our financial modeling and project finance programs conform to international financial modeling standards and reflect the latest market trends in infrastructure procurement. Through continuous curriculum refinement, rigorous quality assurance, and hands-on practical focus, we guarantee that our training courses empower professionals and institutions to achieve optimal financial outcomes and sustainable project success.

Tailor-Made Courses

We understand that every organization has unique challenges and opportunities as well as unique training needs. Phoenix Training Center offers tailor-made courses designed to address specific requirements and challenges faced by your team or organization. Whether you need a customized curriculum, a specific duration, or on-site delivery, we can adapt our expertise to provide a training solution that perfectly aligns with your objectives. We can customize this Course to focus on your industry, specific risk profile, or internal stakeholder dynamics. Contact us to discuss how we can create a bespoke training program that maximizes value and impact for your team. For further inquiries, please contact us on Tel: +254720272325 / +254737296202 or Email training@phoenixtrainingcenter.com.

Admission Criteria

ü  Participants should be reasonably proficient in English.

ü  Applicants must live up to Phoenix Center for Policy, Research and Training admission criteria.

Terms and Conditions

ü  Discounts: Organizations sponsoring Four Participants will have the 5th attend Free

ü  What is catered for by the Course Fees: Fees cater for all requirements for the training – Learning materials, Lunches, Teas, Snacks and Certification. All participants will additionally cater for their travel and accommodation expenses, visa application, insurance, and other personal expenses.

ü  Certificate Awarded: Participants are awarded Certificates of Participation at the end of the training.

ü  Course Improvement: The program content shown here is for guidance purposes only. Our continuous course improvement process may lead to changes in topics and course structure.

ü  Approval of Course: Our Programs are NITA Approved. Participating organizations can therefore claim reimbursement on fees paid in accordance with NITA Rules.

Booking for Training

Kindly send an email to the Training Officer on training@phoenixtrainingcenter.com and we will send you a registration form. We advise you to book early to avoid missing a seat to this training. Or call us on +254720272325 / +254737296202

Payment Options

We provide 3 payment options, choose one for your convenience, and kindly make payments a week before the training starts (at least 5 to 7 days before the Training start date) to reserve your seat:

ü  Groups of 5 People and Above – Cheque Payments to: Phoenix Center for Policy, Research and Training Limited should be paid in advance, a week before the training starts.

ü  Invoice: We can send a bill directly to you or your company.

ü  Deposit directly into Bank Account (Account details provided upon request)

Cancellation Policy

ü  Payment for all courses includes a registration fee, which is non-refundable, and equals 15% of the total sum of the course fee.

ü  Participants may cancel attendance 14 days or more prior to the training commencement date.

ü  No refunds will be made 14 days or less before the training commencement date. However, participants who are unable to attend may opt to attend a similar training course at a later date or send a substitute participant provided the participation criteria have been met.

Accommodation and Airport Pick-up

For physical training attendees, we can assist with recommendations for accommodation near the training venue. Airport pick-up services can also be arranged upon request to ensure a smooth arrival. Please inform us of your travel details in advance if you require these services. For reservations contact the Training Officer on Email: training@phoenixtrainingcenter.com or on Tel: +254720272325 / +254737296202.